PracticalDad’s 47 item retail grocery basket actually declined in cost when priced for February, from an average of $189.91 in January, 2012 to $187.14; the index (November 2010 = 100) now sits at 104.90 and is down from January’s 106.46. The three month moving average is likewise down from it’s January peak of 106.17 to 105.95.
There are some comments that go along with this data.
- There is a bias in dealing with a small survey (47 items priced in three stores) in that issues with particular items within particular stores can skew the results. In this case, two separate grocers have had outsized price increases in two separate items (one per each store) over the past several months and since January, these two items have dropped in cost. The result is that there’s a disproportionate change to the downside as well. It’s possible that these two items might be indicative of a larger issue within the grocery supply chain, but it’s impossible to know.
- Despite these two items, February is the first month since the November 2010 index inception in which there are more items dropping in price than increasing (12 decreases versus 10 increases).
- One of the items (spaghetti sauce) dropped in price as one grocer decreased both the item size and the cost, even adjusting upwards back to the original size of 26 ounces. This however, does give greater latitude with potential price increases for that item moving forward.
| Month | Price | Index | 3 Month Mov Avg |
| Nov 2010 | 178.39 | 100 | |
| Dec 2010 | 180.30 | 101.07 | |
| Jan 2011 | 179.51 | 100.63 | 100.56 |
| Feb 2011 | 179.51 | 100.63 | 100.78 |
| Mar 2011 | 180.51 | 101.08 | 100.78 |
| Apr 2011 | 181.91 | 101.97 | 101.56 |
| May 2011 | 182.10 | 102.08 | 101.71 |
| Jun 2011 | 184.07 | 103.18 | 102.38 |
| Jul 2011 | 185.00 | 103.71 | 102.99 |
| Aug 2011 | 187.05 | 104.85 | 104.06 |
| Sep 2011 | 188.57 | 105.71 | 104.76 |
| Oct 2011 | 188.34 | 105.58 | 105.38 |
| Nov 2011 | 188.31 | 105.56 | 105.61 |
| Dec 2011 | 189.97 | 106.49 | 105.88 |
| Jan 2011 | 189.91 | 106.46 | 106.17 |
| Feb 2011 | 187.14 | 104.90 | 105.95 |
| Item | Size | Category | 12/11 | 1/12 | 2/12 |
| hot dog rolls (ct) | 8 | bread | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| loaf, wht bread, store brand (oz) | 20 | bread | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| spaghetti, store brand (oz) | 16 | bread | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.27 |
| child cereal, sugar flakes, store brand (oz) | 17 | cereal | 3.12 | 3.06 | 3.06 |
| cereal, rice chex, store brand (oz) | 12.8 | cereal | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.84 |
| oatmeal, one minute, store brand (oz) | 42 | cereal | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.36 |
| milk, 2% (gallon) | 1 | dairy | 3.80 | 3.95 | 3.76 |
| butter, unsalted, store brand (lb) | 1 | dairy | 3.49 | 3.59 | 3.56 |
| vanilla ice cream, store brand (qt) | 1 | dairy | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.20 |
| grated parmesan cheese, store brand (oz) | 8 | dairy | 3.08 | 3.14 | 3.14 |
| American cheese, deli (lb) | 1 | dairy | 5.59 | 5.59 | 5.59 |
| peanut butter, store brand (oz) | 28 | grocery | 3.76 | 3.74 | 3.74 |
| grape jelly, store brand (oz) | 32 | grocery | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.01 |
| kidney beans, dark, store brand (oz) | 15.5 | grocery | .95 | .95 | .92 |
| can green peas, store brand (oz) | 15 | grocery | .96 | .99 | .99 |
| can diced tomatoes, store brand (oz) | 14.5 | grocery | 1.06 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| can cut green beans, store brand (oz) | 14.5 | grocery | .99 | .99 | .99 |
| can corn, store brand (oz) | 15.25 | grocery | .99 | .99 | .99 |
| spaghetti sauce, store brand (oz) | 26.5 | grocery | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.13 |
| cola, store brand (L) | 1 | grocery | .94 | .94 | .94 |
| caffeinated coffee, store brand (oz) | 13 | grocery | 4.41 | 4.39 | 4.63 |
| diapers, store brand (ct) | 100 | hlth/bty | 17.70 | 17.70 | 17.70 |
| formula, Enfamil Premium (oz) | 23.4 | hlth/bty | 23.84 | 23.84 | 23.84 |
| child ibuprofen, store brand, OS (oz) | 4 | hlth/bty | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.77 |
| adult ibuprofen, store brand, caplet (ct) | 100 | hlth/bty | 8.31 | 8.31 | 6.82 |
| shampoo, Suave (oz) | 22.5 | hlth/bty | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.91 |
| pads, long/medium, Poise (ct) | 42 | hlth/bty | 15.82 | 15.49 | 14.84 |
| bath soap, Dial (ct) | 8 | hlth/bty | 6.17 | 6.18 | 5.87 |
| aluminum foil, store brand (sq ft) | 75 | hshld | 3.09 | 3.09 | 3.09 |
| kitchen trash bags, handletop, store brand (ct) | 26 | hshld | 4.31 | 4.31 | 4.48 |
| paper towels, 2 ply, store brand (ct) | 8 | hshld | 7.26 | 7.26 | 7.26 |
| hot dogs, meat franks, store brand (oz) | 16 | meat | 2.69 | 2.23 | 2.26 |
| ground beef, 80% lean (oz) | 16 | meat | 3.52 | 3.49 | 3.74 |
| eggs, large (doz) | 1 | meat | 1.91 | 2.11 | 2.01 |
| lunchmeat, deli ham (lb) | 1 | meat | 4.03 | 3.93 | 4.16 |
| chicken, roaster (lb) | 1 | meat | 1.59 | 1.59 | 1.62 |
| fish sticks, Gortons (ct) | 44 | meat | 8.24 | 8.24 | 7.51 |
| tuna, chunk light, water packed, store brand (oz) | 5 | meat | .84 | .84 | .94 |
| bananas (lb) | 1 | produce | .59 | .59 | .59 |
| apples, Red Delicious, bag (lb) | 3 | produce | 3.76 | 3.76 | 3.76 |
| carrots, bag (lb) | 2 | produce | 2.36 | 2.36 | 2.36 |
| OJ, non-concentrate, store brand (oz) | 64 | produce | 2.79 | 2.79 | 2.79 |
| potatoes, Russet (lb) | 5 | produce | 4.32 | 4.66 | 4.32 |
| sugar, store brand (lb) | 5 | staple | 3.33 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| flour, store brand (lb) | 5 | staple | 2.30 | 2.34 | 2.34 |
| canola oil, store brand (oz) | 48 | staple | 4.39 | 4.39 | 4.39 |
| rice, white, long-grain, store brand (lb) | 2 | staple | 1.81 | 1.84 | 1.80 |
| Total | 189.97 | 189.91 | 187.14 | ||